October 2018
Predictions for Next Month
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Regional Predictions ?
Regionally, October profitability is generally higher than September actuals, and all but the Great Plains and the South have budgeted higher than last year. The West has the highest change over last month’s performance, again reflecting September’s weak performance. The Great Plains region budget predicts a lower EBITDA margin over last year and last month, continuing the trend of conservative budgeting in the Midwest.
% Change
Absolute Change
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Absolute Change
National Profitability Predictions
Nationally, October’s budget is favorable to September’s performance. EBITDA and operating margins are predicted to be above last year by 4.8 percent and 7.0 percent respectively. Interestingly, next month’s budget also is ~26 percent higher for both EBITDA and operating margin, reflecting September’s performance. Hospitals should carefully assess performance relative to budget in light of oncoming pressures.
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed as percentage change
Unless noted, figures are actuals and medians expressed in basis points
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
27.2%
4.8%
Operating Margin
26.4%
7.0%
Month Over Month
Year Over Year
Year Over Year Distributions (Click to enlarge)
Operating EBITDA Margin
169.0
27.5
Operating Margin
155.0
14.5
Profitability Prediction % Change
Profitability Prediction Absolute Change
By Region
National Predictions
By Bed Size
Resources and Comments
Bed Size Predictions
Hospital size cohorts mirror the national composite, with hospitals of all bed sizes having budgeted for improved performance over September. The improvement over last year is split, with smaller hospitals budgeting a decrease in October from last year, and the larger hospitals budgeting an increase. Past issues of the National Hospital Flash Report have illustrated the vulnerability of smaller hospitals to the headwinds—it would appear that some of these smaller hospitals are entering a more conservative budget.
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By Region
National Predictions
By Bed Size
Resources and Comments
©2018 Kaufman, Hall & Associates, LLC
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